A nonprofit publication of the Kentucky Center for Public Service Journalism

Governor’s race is a dead heat just three weeks from election day, according to Mason-Dixon poll


By Tom Latek
Kentucky Today

FRANKFORT, Ky. (KT) – The governor’s race in Kentucky is a dead heat, according to poll results released on Wednesday, less than three weeks until the election.

The Mason-Dixon Poll of likely voters shows 46 percent support Matt Bevin’s bid for re-election, and 46 percent for Democratic challenger Andy Beshear, the current Attorney General. One percent of respondents voted for Libertarian nominee John Hicks, while seven percent were undecided.

Last December, Beshear held a 48-40 percent lead over Bevin in a similar poll, but Beshear hadn’t yet secured the Democratic nomination.

Gov. Matt Bevin and challenger, Attorney General Andy Beshear are in dead heat in race for governor. (Photo from Scott Wegenast, via PNS)

The poll shows Bevin bringing Republican voters back into the fold, increasing from 67 percent in December to 77 percent in the current poll. He is also receiving more cross-over vote, with 22 percent of Democrats compared to Beshear’s 15 percent from Republicans.

Bevin leads among men, older voters and those in rural regions. Beshear is stronger with women, younger voters and those in the state’s metropolitan areas.

While his job rating is still more negative than positive, Bevin has improved over the past 10 months. Statewide, 45 percent now approve of his performance, up from 38 percent; while 48 percent still disapprove, but that is down from 53 percent.

Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy says Bevin’s resurgence could be attributed to President Donald Trump’s popularity in Kentucky and strong resistance to his impeachment among its voters. Statewide, 57 percent approve of Trump’s performance as president and 65 percent oppose efforts to impeach and remove him from office.

The poll was conducted from Oct. 10-13. A total of 625 registered Kentucky voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All indicated they were likely to vote in the 2019 statewide general election.

According to Mason Dixon, the margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than ±4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if all voters were surveyed. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or party grouping.

The general election takes place Nov. 5.


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